Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 070100Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS…

…SUMMARY…
A few strong storms with gusty winds and small to marginally severe
hail are possible this evening from southwest through north central
Texas.

…Southwest through North Central Texas…

WV imagery shows a fetch of subtropical moisture spreading through
NM and the Southern Plains downstream from a shortwave trough over
AZ, and this was sampled on the 00Z RAOBs which show moist profiles
through a deep layer. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue tonight within this zone of broad warm advection, and some
increase in the southwesterly low-level jet is forecast across
western TX this evening. Radar and surface data show an outflow
boundary stretching from northwest TX into southwest TX near Midland
moving southward. Elevated storms north of this boundary could pose
some risk for small to marginally severe hail, but modest lapse
rates and weak instability should limit overall hail threat.
Otherwise, vertical wind profiles with 30-40 kt effective bulk shear
might support some semi-organized storm structures, especially with
surface-based storms developing along and south of the convective
outflow boundary. A few of these storms could pose a risk for mainly
locally strong wind gusts this evening.

..Dial.. 11/07/2019

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