Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061630Z – 071200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA…

…SUMMARY…
A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Arizona to southern Oklahoma this afternoon and evening.

…Southern Plains…
Latest surface analysis shows a warm front extending from southeast
NM into west TX and southern OK. South of this boundary, a
warm/moist air mass is present with dewpoints in the 60s and
occasional breaks in the cloud cover. Model guidance suggests this
region will become increasingly unstable through the afternoon with
pockets of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
favorable vertical shear profiles for a few organized/rotating cells
developing over west TX this afternoon and drifting
east-northeastward through the evening. CAM depictions of this
activity provide uncertainty regarding the overall intensity of the
storms, but the parameter-space would be favorable for the strongest
cells to pose a risk of hail and locally gusty/damaging wind gusts.
An isolated tornado is also possible. Have opted to include a small
SLGT risk area where guidance is in highest agreement of severe
potential.

..Hart/Squitieri.. 11/06/2019

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