Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 061200Z – 071200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Arizona to
western portions of Texas, mainly during the late afternoon to

…Southeast AZ to West TX…
A mid-level low over Baja CA will slowly decay as it evolves into an
open wave across AZ and NM. However, a belt of confluent mid-level
west-southwest flow will persist downstream of this wave through
this evening, supporting effective bulk shear from 35-50 kt.
Isolated elevated convection will be ongoing across parts of AZ/NM
at 12Z this morning and likely persist east throughout the day as
700-mb warm/moist advection continues. This activity should temper
the northern extent of surface-based destabilization and aid in
reinforcing a differential heating zone across the Permian Basin to
the Low Rolling Plains of western North Texas. Near this effective
baroclinic zone, a corridor of modest buoyancy should develop with
MLCAPE approaching 1000-1500 J/kg in the late afternoon.

Convection may largely remain on the cool side of the baroclinic
zone outside of the TX Trans-Pecos, but an increase in thunderstorm
coverage/intensity is anticipated by late afternoon to early
evening. Given the degree of shear along with moderate mid-level
lapse rates, isolated large hail should be the main hazard. Isolated
severe wind will probably be maximized during the early to
mid-evening near the front as consolidation into a larger convective
swath likely occurs. A tornado will also be possible in the Permian
Basin vicinity during the early evening where a brief overlap of
enlarging low-level hodographs should coincide with waning
surface-based instability. Overall severe threat will diminish
towards late evening given an increasing dearth of instability with
eastern extent.

..Grams/Bentley.. 11/06/2019


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