Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 051200Z – 061200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.


Weak large-scale height rises are forecast across much of the
central/southern States during the day1 period, though overall
pattern is not expected to change appreciably. Not until later
Wednesday will a meaningful upper trough finally begin to eject
across the southwestern US toward the southern Plains. Until then,
disorganized convection is forecast to once again develop across the
southeastern US from the FL Peninsula to coastal Carolinas along a
weak surface boundary.

Another region where weak convection is expected to develop will be
along a corridor of increasing warm advection from west TX into
southeast OK. LLJ is forecast to increase during the latter half of
the period across the TX South Plains in response to upper trough
beginning to eject downstream across the northern Baja Peninsula.
Higher-PW air mass will finally begin advancing north across TX and
warm advection north of a surface boundary should aid elevated
convective threat Tuesday night. At this time it appears buoyancy
will be too weak to warrant any appreciable threat for severe hail.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/05/2019


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