Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 042000Z – 051200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms may occur across portions of the southeastern
US.

…Discussion…
No change was made to the previously issued forecast.

..Smith.. 11/04/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2019/

Another quiet convective weather day is forecast across the CONUS
today, with thunderstorm activity primarily restricted to the
southeastern portions of the nation. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will be possible through the day over parts of the FL
peninsula, and into parts of AL/GA and the Carolinas tonight.
Overall this activity will be rather sparse in coverage.

Thunderstorms are still expected to affect parts of northern Mexico
today, but it appears that the risk of storms occurring north of the
Rio Grande is too low to warrant an outlook at this time.

Finally, increasing warm advection and lift will result in scattered
showers and possibly a lightning strike or two across parts of AR
later tonight. Given current model guidance, confidence in 10%
coverage of thunderstorms is too low to outlook at this time.

$$

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