Valid 090100Z – 091200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS…
A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Ohio Valley,
and over parts of the Central Plains through evening.
Scattered storms persist near the cold front, from southern IN
across central OH and into WV. These cells may produce marginally
severe hail, with storm longevity aided by long, straight
hodographs. Ample moisture and instability remains mainly north of
the OH River, in part due to cool temperatures aloft, and will
support strong storms for a few hours before the boundary layer
cools and stabilizes.
Widely spaced storms persist across the central High Plains, along
with isolated cells into central NE and eastern OK. Given that the
area is beneath the upper ridge, the loss of heating should result
in a downward trend in storm strength. Marginal hail or wind gusts
are possible with the strongest storms through early evening.
Additional storms are possible this evening and overnight near an
east-west stationary front extending from the TX Panhandle across OK
and into AR. While shear will remain weak, MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
along with nocturnal warm advection with southwesterly 850 mb flow
will support scattered storms through early morning. A few strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with rather disorganized convection.