Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031300Z – 041200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.


In the mid and upper levels, cyclonic flow in the aggregate will
once again exist across much of the United States on Sunday,
stretching from the Pacific Northwest to the Atlantic Coast. To the
southwest of this mean cyclonic flow, a closed low exists over
southern California. At the surface, a stationary front will remain
draped across the southern Florida Peninsula.

Lightning should remain limited across much of the United States.
The best chance for lightning will be south of the stationary front
across southern Florida. Here, a moist airmass will combine with
various land/sea breeze circulations to result in convection capable
of producing lightning.

Elsewhere, lightning chances will remain too low for categorical
delineation. However, a couple of areas may experience a lightning
strike or two. The first is across far southern New Mexico and far
west Texas as remnant thunderstorms from northern Mexico may
eventually drift into the United States. The other area stretches
from Northern Rockies east to the Great Lakes, where ascent
associated with fast moving vorticity maxima, embedded within the
strong flow aloft, may become sufficient to support a lightning
strike or two in the presence of steep low-to-mid-level lapse rates.

..Marsh.. 11/03/2019


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.