Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 031200Z – 041200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated thunderstorms may occur later today over portions of the
central and southern Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected.

…Discussion…

Negligible height changes are forecast across lower latitudes during
the day1 period as broad upper troughing holds firm over the upper
MS Valley/Great Lakes region. As a result, surface ridging is
expected to hold across the Gulf States which should maintain weak
surface boundary over the southern FL Peninsula. Isolated
thunderstorms have formed near/south of this boundary over south FL
the last few days and a few storms should once again develop across
this region later today with onset of stronger boundary-layer
heating.

Upstream across northern Mexico, latest water vapor imagery depicts
a notable short-wave trough off the northern Baja Peninsula. This
feature should encourage deep convection over northern Mexico later
this afternoon, some of which may approach the international border
near ELP. However, will not introduce 10% thunder to this region as
moisture is a bit scant and large-scale forcing should remain just
upstream.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 11/03/2019

$$

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