Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 011200Z – 021200Z


Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula. No severe thunderstorms are expected.

…Southern FL…

Surface anticyclone is forecast to build east across the Gulf States
during the upcoming day1 period in the wake of ejecting mid-level
short-wave trough over New England. Associated surface front should
advance south across the central Peninsula then stall and weaken by
the end of the period. Low-level convergence is not expected to be
particularly noteworthy due to pre-frontal northeasterly winds but
some diurnal heating will lead to weak boundary-layer circulations
that could aid isolated convection across the warm sector. Forecast
soundings ahead of the front exhibit modest surface-2km lapse rates
by afternoon, but weak aloft. As a result, buoyancy should prove
supportive for a few thunderstorms where higher-PW air mass is
expected to linger.

..Darrow/Elliott.. 11/01/2019


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