Valid 310100Z – 311200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF
STATES INTO EASTERN KY…
Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado remain possible across
parts of the central Gulf Coast States to the Cumberland Plateau
through early morning Thursday.
Southern influence of large-scale height falls will spread across
the lower MS Valley/Mid-South region tonight ahead of Plains trough.
Associated surface front has surged into the western TN Valley,
arcing southwest across LA to near BRO in deep south TX. Deep
convection currently persists along the main frontal zone over
southern LA/southwest MS, but this activity has struggled to
organize/strengthen appreciably over the last few hours. As the
upper trough shifts east tonight, 850mb flow should strengthen over
MS later this evening which could aid strengthening/organization
along the advancing boundary. Downstream across the FL Panhandle,
earlier weak supercell activity has gradually weakened within weak
warm advection zone. Strongest zone of low-level warm advection
should advance north during the overnight hours and this should
encourage stronger storms inland ahead of the front. Have increased
low severe probs a bit across the TN Valley to account for stronger
storms within the warm advection zone late tonight.