Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 292000Z – 301200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF TEXAS…AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI…

…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe hail remains possible tonight across portions of
central Texas. A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are also
possible across the middle Texas coast, as well as across southeast
Louisiana and far southern Mississippi overnight.

…Discussion…
Aside from very minor tweaks to the thunder line across the
Oklahoma/Kansas vicinity, reflective of current convection, no
changes appear necessary to forecast areas or reasoning in this
outlook update.

..Goss.. 10/29/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2019/

…Central TX to the middle TX coast…
Surface reflection of a shallow front will hold nearly stationary
across south and southeast TX as surface ridging persists across the
southern Great Plains while the 850-mb baroclinic zone hangs well to
the north/northwest from northwest TX through eastern OK. Low-level
isentropic ascent will continue through the period with some
strengthening of modest southerlies tonight atop the stable surface
layer.

A couple surface-based storms are possible near the surface front
across the middle TX coast in the late afternoon. A veering wind
profile with height should contribute to sufficient effective shear
for a transient supercell or two given the presence of 75-77 F
surface dew points. A modest combination of hodograph curvature and
mid-level lapse rates should temper the overall magnitude and
coverage of the severe threat. Otherwise, isolated severe hail will
be possible, mainly this evening into the overnight with elevated
storms from the Hill Country/Edwards Plateau towards north-central
TX given 40-50 kt effective shear.

…Southeast LA and far southern MS…
There will be some increase in low-level shear overnight in advance
of a minor subtropical low over the central Gulf. A couple transient
rotating storms capable of a brief tornado or locally strong gusts,
may occur late in the period as the warm sector characterized by low
to mid 70s dewpoints spreads slowly inland. The overall instability
and shear combination is expected to remain marginal.

$$

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