Valid 291200Z – 301200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
TEXAS…
…SUMMARY…
Marginally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong gusty winds
will be possible today into tonight across parts of the southern
Plains.
…Southern Plains…
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward into the Desert
Southwest with an upper-level low closing off over the central
Rockies tonight. Southwest mid-level flow will remain across much of
the eastern half of the nation. Warm advection will take place
across the southern Plains today and tonight ahead of the
approaching system. Surface-based instability will develop across
south Texas today. Isolated thunderstorms may form along the
northern edge of the stronger instability in south-central Texas.
Tonight, elevated instability will increase across central and north
Texas as a low-level jet gradually strengthens across the southern
Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible tonight
along the axis of the low-level jet from south-central Texas
northward across the Texas Hill Country. Although marginally severe
hail will be possible across much of central Texas, the greater
chance for strong wind gusts will likely be confined to
south-central Texas where storms are more likely to be
surface-based.
..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/29/2019
$$