Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 281630Z – 291200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

…Discussion…
Large-scale ridging off the South Atlantic coast will maintain
easterly flow and a maritime tropical air mass across most of the FL
peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms are possible during late
afternoon, mainly across central to north FL near a diffuse front.
Otherwise, the northeast extent of a deep moisture plume attendant
to a subtropical low should reach the northeast Gulf coast late in
the period, where around a 10 percent probability for elevated
thunderstorms should exist towards dawn.

Across parts of TX, low-level warm advection will strengthen
overnight atop a surface ridge, promoting the development of thin
elevated buoyancy. Latest guidance suggests the probability of
elevated thunderstorm development is only around 10 percent.
Background ascent beyond warm advection will be negligible through
12Z, as the region lies well away from the influence of a pair of
shortwave troughs embedded within the broader longwave from central
Canada to the western CONUS.

..Grams/Wendt.. 10/28/2019

$$

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