Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 281300Z – 291200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

Broad cyclonic flow aloft encompasses the central and western CONUS
as one embedded shortwave trough ejects northeastward from the
southern Rockies to the Great Lakes while weakening, and an upstream
trough digs southward over the northern Rockies to the northern
Great Basin. A surface front across central TX will remain
quasi-stationary today as low-level moisture spreads northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico into south TX. The increasing
low-level moisture and warm advection atop the cool air mass may
support a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight across
central/northwest TX.

Large-scale ridging off the southeast Atlantic coast will maintain
easterly flow and a maritime tropical air mass across the FL
peninsula, with diurnal thunderstorms possible this afternoon to the
south of a stalled front across north FL. Otherwise, the northeast
extent of a deep moisture plume with a subtropical low will spread
inland over the northeast Gulf coast, where isolated thunderstorms
will be possible overnight.

..Thompson/Smith.. 10/28/2019


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