Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 281200Z – 291200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental United
States on Monday.


Large-scale pattern is expected to prove mostly unfavorable for
thunderstorm development across the CONUS today. Higher-PW air mass
has been forced to low latitudes and currently extends across the
Gulf Basin – FL Peninsula. This air mass will begin to advance
slowly north across FL into southern GA by the end of the period as
upper ridging holds firm off the southern Atlantic Coast. Given the
air mass in place over the FL Peninsula, daytime heating should
contribute to adequate destabilization such that a few thunderstorms
are expected to develop by early afternoon. This activity will be
weakly sheared with poor lapse rates suggesting minimal threat for

Upstream across TX, polar front will surge south across the Edwards
Plateau then stall in response to upstream trough. In response, LLJ
will strengthen atop the shallow cold dome and instability should
increase during the latter half of the period. Forecast soundings
from southwest TX exhibit MUCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg by the end of
the period near SJT and isolated thunderstorms are expected to
develop within this warm-advection regime. At this time it appears
mid-level lapse rates/buoyancy will be a bit too marginal to warrant
severe hail probs.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 10/28/2019


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