Valid 271200Z – 281200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS…
Some severe threat can be expected with thunderstorms across the
southern Middle Atlantic into the Carolinas. Damaging winds are the
primary threat, although a tornado, or two, can not be ruled out.
Well-defined mid-level short-wave trough is lifting northeast across
IN early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into
western NY/PA by 18z, then off the New England Coast by the end of
the period. Large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to aid a band
of convection across the OH Valley, extending into the central
Appalachians, that should progress into the Middle Atlantic by late
morning. In response to the short wave, richer moisture should surge
north across the Carolinas/southeast VA into southern DE where 70F
dew points are expected prior to frontal passage. Have opted to
expand the SLGT Risk north a bit into the southern Delmarva to
account for southern influence of stronger forcing ahead of the
short wave where a squall line is expected to be the primary storm
mode. More isolated activity is expected across the Carolinas where
deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker than higher latitudes.
Damaging winds should be the primary threat with convection by late
morning, but an isolated tornado can not be ruled out.