Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 270100Z – 271200Z


Severe threat is low tonight across the CONUS.

…01z Update…

Visual remnants of Olga have mostly dissipated over southeast
IN/southwest OH early this evening. Damaging wind gusts were noted
with this feature earlier today as it advanced quickly from northern
MS into western KY but this has decreased with the dissipation of
Olga. While lightning is quite sparse north of 32N, large-scale
forcing ahead of a strong short-wave trough may encourage deep
convection across the OH Valley later tonight. Otherwise, deep
convection should continue along a trailing confluence zone as it
progresses across GA into the Carolinas toward daybreak. Forecast
soundings across the southeastern US exhibit slowly moistening
boundary layer overnight within a warm advection regime. There is
some concern that stronger convection could evolve into some weak
supercell activity where surface dew points climb into the lower
70s. At this time will not introduce low severe probs for this
potential but a damaging wind gust can not be completely ruled out
given the expected increase in shear.

..Darrow.. 10/27/2019


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