Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 261200Z – 271200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES…

…SUMMARY…
A few strong/severe thunderstorms are possible today across the
central Gulf States. A brief tornado or locally damaging wind gust
are the primary threats.

…Central Gulf States…

Early-evening water vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over the southern Plains, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. In response to this feature, post-tropical cyclone
Olga, currently located off the LA Coast, will eject quickly
north-northeast, tracking across western MS early before lifting
into western TN by 18z. Maritime tropical air mass has moved onshore
along the central Gulf Coast and 70F surface dew points should
advance inland along with remnants of Olga. Lapse rates are
necessarily weak with this low-latitude cyclone and instability will
be quite limited, and likely not surface based, outside of higher
dew points. As a result, forecast soundings across MS/AL are
strongly sheared but scantily buoyant, but likely enough for
lightning with stronger updrafts. Convection may struggle to
organize given the weak instability and latest CAMs support this
with minimal sustained UH tracks of note. Have made a few minor
changes to earlier Day2 outlook, namely to reduce severe probs
across GA as Olga is expected to eject into the OH Valley well
northwest of this region.

..Darrow/Bentley.. 10/26/2019

$$

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