Valid 251630Z – 261200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
LA…SOUTHEAST MS…SOUTHWEST AL…
A couple tornadoes and isolated damaging winds will be possible
through tonight across portions of the central Gulf Coast States.
…Central Gulf Coast States…
Two rounds of potential severe are anticipated during the period.
The first round is ongoing within the warm conveyor region centered
across the MS/AL coast. With mid to upper 70s surface dew points
offshore and low 70s having reached the coast, slow northward
surface-based destabilization is anticipated across southeast MS and
southwest AL. A few supercells have been observed this morning,
mainly in the coastal waters. This activity should continue to shift
slowly north as a diffuse warm front advances. The greatest relative
tornado threat should exist across southwest AL and southeast MS
amid 25-30 kt 0-1 km shear prior to individual cells weakening with
northern extent in a cooler/more stable boundary layer north of the
front. The severe threat within this warm conveyor regime should
subside towards early evening.
A second round of tornado/wind potential may redevelop tonight as
cyclogenesis occurs in the northwest Gulf with the resultant low
tracking north-northeast into the Lower MS Valley. The primary
uncertainty will be the northward extent of surface-based
destabilization given the time of day along with extensive prior
convection. However, low-level wind profiles will be substantially
stronger compared to this afternoon yielding rather enlarged
low-level hodographs. Have expanded level 1 and 2 severe risk areas
to the west/north near the surface cyclone track to account for this
relatively more conditional threat.