Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 251200Z – 261200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY…

…SUMMARY…
A few marginally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the central Gulf Coast tonight.

…Central Gulf Coast…
An upper-level low will move southeastward across the southern
Plains today as southwest mid-level flow strengthens across the
lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a cold front will advance
eastward from eastern Texas into western Louisiana as a low develops
in the northwest Gulf of Mexico. This low is forecast to move
northward this evening across Louisiana as the front advances
eastward toward the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface dewpoints
should increase into the lower to mid 70s F across southeast
Louisiana during the mid to late evening allowing for the
development of a small pocket of moderate instability. At that time,
model forecasts move a lead shortwave trough and associated
low-level jet into the lower Mississippi Valley. This should
increase convective coverage as thunderstorms form along and ahead
of the front. Forecast soundings at 06Z/Saturday ahead of the front
near New Orleans have MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg with 0-1 km
shear in the 30 to 35 kt range. This should be enough for a isolated
severe threat. There may be a marginal tornado threat with rotating
cells that move inland. A few marginally severe wind gusts may also
occur along the stronger parts of a convective line oriented along
the front.

..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/25/2019

$$

Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.