Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 250100Z – 251200Z


Thunderstorms, some producing marginally severe hail and/or wind,
are expected across parts of south-central Texas this evening.

…South-central Texas…
The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough digging
southeastward into the southern High Plains with west to southwest
mid-level flow over much of Texas. At the surface, a cold front is
located from near San Antonio to just east of Dallas. Thunderstorms
have developed near the front early this evening with a nearly
continuous line located in the Texas Hill Country. Surface dewpoints
ahead of the front in south-central Texas are generally in the upper
60s to near 70 F. This is resulting in a small pocket of moderate
instability with MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 1800 J/kg range
according to the RAP. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km
shear across central Texas in the 35 to 45 kt range. This
environment may be enough to support an isolated severe threat with
the stronger multicells along the front this evening. The greatest
threat for strong wind gusts and hail will probably exist from near
San Antonio southwestward to the Mexico border where the strongest
instability is analyzed. Any severe threat should remain marginal
mainly due to poor lapse rates.

..Broyles.. 10/25/2019


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