Valid 241200Z – 251200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS…
Scattered thunderstorms, some producing marginally severe hail or
wind, are expected over parts of Texas this afternoon and evening.
An upper-level trough will dig southeastward across the southern
Rockies today as west to southwest mid-level flow remains in place
in the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward across central and north Texas. Ahead of the front,
surface dewpoints will increase into the lower to mid 60s F as a
pocket of moderate instability develops across southwest and central
Texas. Increasing low-level convergence along the front and surface
heating should result in thunderstorm development this afternoon
from near San Angelo northeastward to near Dallas. This convection
should move southeastward into the Texas Hill Country late this
afternoon into the evening. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg combined
with 0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 kt should result in an isolated severe
threat. However, the convection should tend to form along and behind
the boundary. In addition, lapse rates are forecast to remain poor.
These two factors should help to keep any severe threat marginal. A
few strong wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger
thunderstorms along the front mainly near and after peak heating.