Valid 232000Z – 241200Z
…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through
Only minor modification this update was to add a small 10% thunder
area from eastern IA toward Lake MI where weak elevated instability
may support a few lightning strikes ahead of a surface low.
Otherwise, the greatest chance of thunderstorms will be after 03Z
.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/
No changes warranted across the region. Influenced by the
amplifying/southeastward-digging upper trough over the High Plains,
strengthening ascent and increasing low/mid-level moisture will
support elevated thunderstorm development tonight along a
southwest/northeast-oriented cold front as it roughly parallels I-44
in Oklahoma. Modest buoyancy (MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg)
and effective bulk shear (mainly less than 30 kt) suggest that
severe storms with large hail are unlikely. MUCAPE could approach
1000 J/kg late in the period across northwest Texas, but storm
development in this area will be more probable after 12z Thursday.
A front will stall/move slowly across south Florida today. This
front will potentially provide a focus for isolated thunderstorm
development given buoyancy associated with low-mid 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints south of the boundary.