Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231630Z – 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through

…Southern Plains…
No changes warranted across the region. Influenced by the
amplifying/southeastward-digging upper trough over the High Plains,
strengthening ascent and increasing low/mid-level moisture will
support elevated thunderstorm development tonight along a
southwest/northeast-oriented cold front as it roughly parallels I-44
in Oklahoma. Modest buoyancy (MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg)
and effective bulk shear (mainly less than 30 kt) suggest that
severe storms with large hail are unlikely. MUCAPE could approach
1000 J/kg late in the period across northwest Texas, but storm
development in this area will be more probable after 12z Thursday.

A front will stall/move slowly across south Florida today. This
front will potentially provide a focus for isolated thunderstorm
development given buoyancy associated with low-mid 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints south of the boundary.

..Guyer/Nauslar.. 10/23/2019


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