Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231300Z – 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. through

A midlevel shortwave trough will move over New England today, with
some weak/elevated convection possible this morning across eastern
ME. A trailing front will stall across south FL, potentially
providing a focus for isolated thunderstorm development given
buoyancy associated with low-mid 70s boundary-layer dewpoints south
of the boundary. Farther west, low-level moisture return will begin
across TX, in response to pressure falls across the southern High
Plains and in advance of a midlevel trough digging southward from
the northern Rockies toward the central Rockies by early Thursday.

Increasing low-level moisture and strengthening ascent will support
elevated thunderstorm development by early tonight along a cold
front aligned along the I-44 corridor in OK. Rather modest buoyancy
(MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg) and effective bulk shear
(mainly less than 30 kt) both suggest that severe storms with large
hail are unlikely overnight in OK. MUCAPE could approach 1000 J/kg
late in the period across northwest TX, though storm development in
this area will be more probable after 12z.

..Thompson/Smith.. 10/23/2019


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