Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 231200Z – 241200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or

A deep upper trough covering much of the eastern CONUS is forecast
to lift northeastward through the period, as an attendant cold front
moves eastward across New England and southward into the southern FL
Peninsula. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across portions
of eastern New England this morning, along and ahead of the cold
front. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible across the
southern FL Peninsula through much of the period, as the cold front
stalls out and begins to return northward as a warm front tonight.

Further west, another upper trough will amplify into portions of the
central/southern Rockies and Plains as a vigorous shortwave drops
southward into the Four Corners region. A cold front will move
southward across the Plains in conjunction with this system. North
of the front, isentropic ascent related to an increasing low-level
jet will result in an expanding precipitation shield by late tonight
from north-central TX into OK. Embedded convective elements within
this area of rainfall will be capable of producing at least isolated
lightning strikes, with weak but sufficient MUCAPE (250-500 J/kg) in
place. More substantial elevated instability will reside over
northwest TX, where a conditional risk of a few stronger storms will
be present late tonight. However, confidence in deep convection
across this region is low, with large-scale ascent expected to
remain focused further northeast through 12Z Thursday morning.

..Dean.. 10/23/2019


Leave a Reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.