Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 230100Z – 231200Z

…NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST…

…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through the remainder of
tonight.

…MT into northern WY and the far western Dakotas…
Convection associated with a vigorous upper trough moving across
central MT will spread into eastern MT and the western Dakotas
tonight. The threat for convectively enhanced severe wind gusts
should decrease with time, as the boundary layer downstream of the
ongoing convection cools and stabilizes. The strongest convection
may still produce occasional gusty winds, given the strong
background wind field across the region.

…NC Outer Banks into New England…
The persistent thunderstorm cluster across far eastern NC may pose a
threat of locally strong wind gusts across the Outer Banks until
around 02Z before it moves offshore, though the severe threat should
continue to be limited by weak buoyancy.

Later tonight, a modest steepening of midlevel lapse rates will
support an increase in elevated convection across portions of New
England. While flow will be rather strong through the troposphere,
the lack of near-surface-based buoyancy is expected to preclude any
substantial severe threat.

..Dean.. 10/23/2019

$$

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