Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 220100Z – 221200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FL
PANHANDLE/NORTH FL…EASTERN AL…GA…

…SUMMARY…
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps a
tornado remain possible tonight across portions of the Southeast.

…FL Panhandle northeastward into GA…
Despite strong deep-layer shear, convection has generally remained
disorganized this afternoon/evening across the Gulf Coast, most
likely due to limited buoyancy and weakening/veering low-level flow.
With the low-level jet expected to remain focused generally north of
where there is more than negligible buoyancy, potential for any
substantial uptick in convective organization appears relatively
limited through the remainder of the night. However, given strong
deep-layer flow/shear and a relatively moist low-level environment,
the strongest convective elements may pose a risk of locally
damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado.

Prior to 03-04Z, the greatest relative severe risk is expected with
the ongoing thunderstorm cluster moving across southern AL and the
FL Panhandle. Later tonight, some renewed convection is possible
further north across portions of central/northern AL/GA as a weak
frontal wave migrates northeastward. While low-level flow/shear will
be somewhat stronger in this area, the severe potential will be
conditional on the presence of sufficient near-surface buoyancy,
which is forecast to remain very limited through the night.

..Dean.. 10/22/2019

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