Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 211630Z – 221200Z


Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the Deep South through
this afternoon and tonight, primarily along the Gulf Coast from
southeast Louisiana into southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts and a couple
tornadoes are possible.

…Deep South/Gulf Coast…
Last night’s extensive/severe-active squall line continues to
exhibit considerable downward organizational and intensity trends
late this morning, with the unperturbed richer warm/moist sector
effectively confined to southern portions of Louisiana/Mississippi
to southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle at late
morning. An MCS is ongoing over the open waters of the Gulf of
Mexico south of Louisiana, with the north edge of this MCS
developing northeastward into coastal southeast Louisiana at this
time. Ascent including a possible MCV related to this squall line
appears likely to focus the most probable severe risk along the Gulf
Coast this afternoon into tonight, in conjunction with moisture-rich
maritime air related to the northward/inland advance of a warm
front. As additional diurnal destabilization occurs and the
warm/moist sector moves northward, strengthening deep-layer flow and
moderately strong low-level shear/SRH will support a mixed
convective mode including supercells and linear bowing segments.
Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible into tonight
as storms generally transition east-northeastward across the region.

..Guyer/Nauslar.. 10/21/2019


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