Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 200100Z – 201200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA…

…SUMMARY…
A threat of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado will move from
eastern Georgia this evening into the Carolinas through tonight.

…Eastern GA into the Carolinas…
A surface low and shortwave trough will move from GA into the
Carolinas tonight, providing increasing shear profiles. A warm front
will lift north into the central Carolinas, with 70s F dewpoints and
increasing low-level shear. However, temperatures aloft will
continue to warm. Upstream 00Z soundings show very warm 500 mb
temperatures of -1 to -4 C over the FL Panhandle and into southern
GA, and this is limiting low to mid level updraft acceleration
potential. A few damaging wind gusts are possible with storms as
they evolve tonight near the warm front, and strong low-level shear
may support a brief tornado with the stronger cells. For more
information see mesoscale discussions 2079 and 2080.

..Jewell.. 10/20/2019

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