Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 192000Z – 201200Z

…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT…

…SUMMARY…
The risk for isolated tornadoes will increase tonight over parts of
the coastal Carolinas.

…FL…
The remnant circulation of Nester is currently over the FL
Panhandle. Low-level winds are slowly veering across the FL
Peninsula, resulting in slowing decreasing vertical shear and
convergence. While scattered showers and an occasional thunderstorm
with gusty winds remains possible across this region for the next
several hours, this activity should remain rather shallow and
disorganized.

…Carolinas…
As the aforementioned low tracks northeastward, the potential for a
few supercells and associated risk of a tornado or two is expected
to develop over portions of SC/NC – mainly after 03z tonight.

..Hart.. 10/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2019/

…Florida to coastal Carolinas…
The extratropical remnants of Nestor will continue to steadily
spread northeastward over northern Florida/southern Georgia today. A
severe threat, in the form of locally damaging winds and/or a
tornado, will persist the first part of the afternoon mainly across
the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. Low-level winds will
otherwise continue to veer/weaken across the Florida Peninsula with
convection tending to shift offshore to the open Atlantic Waters.

While the overall system/surface low will tend to weaken with time,
a moist influx off the Atlantic in conjunction with the persistence
of a strong low-level wind field could lead to some increase in
supercell potential across coastal portions of Georgia/South
Carolina later today and this evening, and coastal North Carolina
late tonight. While deep-layer/effective shear will be weak owing to
an expected flow weakness above 2 km AGL, some tornado and damaging
wind risk may exist in these areas later this afternoon, and more so
tonight.

$$

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