Valid 191630Z – 201200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS…
…SUMMARY…
The potential for a tornado or two and/or isolated
thunderstorm-related wind damage will shift from the Florida
Peninsula today to the coastal Carolinas late this afternoon and
tonight.
…Florida to coastal Carolinas…
The extratropical remnants of Nestor will continue to steadily
spread northeastward over northern Florida/southern Georgia today. A
severe threat, in the form of locally damaging winds and/or a
tornado, will persist the first part of the afternoon mainly across
the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. Low-level winds will
otherwise continue to veer/weaken across the Florida Peninsula with
convection tending to shift offshore to the open Atlantic Waters.
While the overall system/surface low will tend to weaken with time,
a moist influx off the Atlantic in conjunction with the persistence
of a strong low-level wind field could lead to some increase in
supercell potential across coastal portions of Georgia/South
Carolina later today and this evening, and coastal North Carolina
late tonight. While deep-layer/effective shear will be weak owing to
an expected flow weakness above 2 km AGL, some tornado and damaging
wind risk may exist in these areas later this afternoon, and more so
tonight.
..Guyer/Nauslar.. 10/19/2019
$$