Valid 190100Z – 191200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FL…
…SUMMARY…
The threat exists for a tornado or two, along with isolated
thunderstorm gusts near severe levels, tonight across parts of
Florida.
…01z Update…
Severe probabilities will remain unchanged across FL tonight.
Tropical Storm Nestor is quickly lifting northeast toward the
eastern FL Panhandle. Timing of stronger wind fields and shear
supportive of deep rotation favors severe threat increasing after
midnight with low-topped supercells. Ref https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
for more information on this tropical cyclone.
Mid-level short-wave trough is shifting into the High Plains this
evening as 50kt 500mb speed max progresses across west TX. 00z
sounding from DDC exhibits adequate buoyancy and steep lapse rates
for lightning within stronger convective updrafts. As a result,
thunder probabilities will be maintained ahead of this feature.
..Darrow.. 10/19/2019
$$