Valid 181200Z – 191200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FL
Some severe risk will be noted along the FL Gulf Coast late tonight.
…FL Gulf Coast…
Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level
short-wave trough along the upper TX Coast-northwest Gulf shifting
east in line with earlier model guidance. This feature is expected
to aid a strengthening tropical cyclone over the western Gulf basin
which will then track northeast toward the FL Panhandle by sunrise
Saturday morning. Prior to this low approaching the FL Coast, an
influential surface high centered over the OH Valley will result in
offshore trajectories that will prevent substantive low-level
moisture/buoyancy from advancing inland. Not until after midnight
will wind profiles increase appreciably across the FL Panhandle.
Even so, boundary-layer air mass over northern FL should remain
somewhat stable due to aforementioned offshore flow. Forecast
soundings for this region suggest elevated buoyancy will increase
such that a few thunderstorms may develop after 06z. However,
near-surface based convection is not expected until the end of the
period, immediately ahead of the surface low, when tropical moisture
feed will finally approach coastal regions. Will maintain low
probabilities for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this
late night development.
Reference https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for more information on
potential tropical cyclone #16.