Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 180100Z – 181200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States today and tonight.

…01z Update…

Convection, capable of producing lightning, will be sparse across
the CONUS the remainder of the period.

00z soundings across the Pacific northwest exhibit steep
low-midlevel lapse rates with weak surface-based buoyancy capable of
supporting weak convection. However, lightning has remained mostly
offshore and this activity should die off as the upper trough moves

Large-scale forcing for ascent will spread into the central Rockies
later tonight which should aid mid-level moistening/buoyancy as
profiles cool. While lapse rates will be supportive of convection it
appears lightning should be limited and mostly near the San Juan
mountains of CO.

Lightning will also remain sparse along the Gulf Coast as
forcing/buoyancy remain at very low latitudes through 12z.

..Darrow.. 10/18/2019


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