Valid 170100Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND…
Locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds may occur over southern
New England and eastern Long Island tonight.
Surface low is deepening as it lifts northeast along the NJ coast
toward Long Island. This feature appears to be handled well by
latest model guidance, though dew points are 1-2 degrees F lower
along Long Island than earlier RAP forecast. Weak convection is
currently observed ahead of the low, extending south off the
Atlantic Coast. However, lightning is currently limited to latitudes
south of DE. Given the strong wind fields, will maintain low
probabilities for locally damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado
with low-topped convection ahead of progressive low.