Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 162000Z – 171200Z


Locally gusty/damaging thunderstorm winds may occur over southern
New England this evening into tonight.

…20Z Update…
No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of
southern New England. Strong to locally damaging thunderstorm winds
and perhaps a brief tornado remain possible, mainly in the 00-06Z (8
PM – 2 AM EDT) time frame.

..Gleason.. 10/16/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

…Mid Atlantic Region…
This morning’s water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough
tracking rapidly eastward across the northern Appalachians. The
strong surface cold front associated with this trough is moving
across WV and western PA, and will move into the Mid Atlantic region
this afternoon. Fast-moving showers with gusty winds will be
possible. Very isolated lightning strikes may occur with this
activity through the afternoon, but current indications are that
lightning coverage will remain below 10%.

…Southern New England…
By late afternoon, the cold front will surge off the Mid Atlantic
coast and begin affecting New England. Rapid cyclogenesis will be
occurring off the NJ/Long Island coast during the evening, resulting
in very strong low-level warm advection and impressive vertical
shear profiles. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate some convective
organization over parts of Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA.
Forecast soundings suggest a window of opportunity for surface-based
convection and perhaps a damaging wind gust or brief tornado in the
00-06z period this evening.


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