Valid 161630Z – 171200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING…
Locally gusty/damaging winds may occur over southern New England
…Mid Atlantic Region…
This morning’s water vapor loop shows a vigorous shortwave trough
tracking rapidly eastward across the northern Appalachians. The
strong surface cold front associated with this trough is moving
across WV and western PA, and will move into the Mid Atlantic region
this afternoon. Fast-moving showers with gusty winds will be
possible. Very isolated lightning strikes may occur with this
activity through the afternoon, but current indications are that
lightning coverage will remain below 10%.
…Southern New England…
By late afternoon, the cold front will surge off the Mid Atlantic
coast and begin affecting New England. Rapid cyclogenesis will be
occurring off the NJ/Long Island coast during the evening, resulting
in very strong low-level warm advection and impressive vertical
shear profiles. Several 12z CAM solutions indicate some convective
organization over parts of Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA.
Forecast soundings suggest a window of opportunity for surface-based
convection and perhaps a damaging wind gust or brief tornado in the
00-06z period this evening.