Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 160100Z – 161200Z

…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX…

…SUMMARY…
Marginally severe thunderstorms will remain possible this evening
from parts of southeast Oklahoma and far southwest Arkansas
southward into western Louisiana and Texas.

…Southern Plains and Arklatex…
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough extending
from the central Plains into the southern Rockies. Ahead of this
feature, a plume of mid-level moisture is located in the southern
Plains and Arklatex. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in this
plume just ahead of a cold front located across north-central Texas
and southeast Oklahoma. A pocket of moderate instability is analyzed
to the south of the front in northeast Texas and far southeast
Oklahoma. The Fort Worth 00Z sounding is sampling the airmass well
with MLCAPE at 1400 J/kg and 0-6 km shear near 40 kt. This
environment should be enough for marginally severe wind gusts and
hail for a few more hours this evening.

Further to the south, another pocket of moderate instability is
analyzed by the RAP from central Texas into southeast Texas with
MLCAPE values in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. Scattered
thunderstorms are also ongoing along this corridor. 0-6 km shear
values are estimated to be in the 30 to 35 kt range by regional
WSR-88D VWPs. Although lapse rates are poor, the amount of
instability and shear should be enough for a marginal wind damage
and hail threat for a few more hours this evening.

..Broyles.. 10/16/2019

$$

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