Valid 151630Z – 161200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
TEXAS INTO THE OZARKS…AND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST…
…SUMMARY…
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening from parts of Texas into the Ozarks, and along portions of
the Gulf Coast.
…Southeast OK into the Gulf Coast region…
Morning surface analysis shows a diffuse surface boundary extending
from southern AL/MS into parts of LA/AR and eastern OK. Persistent
clouds and precipitation along and north of the boundary will limit
it’s northward progress today. But ample low-level moisture south
of the front and the potential for a little heating will likely
result in scattered afternoon thunderstorms throughout this axis.
The area with greatest confidence of more intense storms extends
from southeast OK into southwest AR/northeast TX and northern LA –
where the strongest heating and vertical shear profiles will exist.
Rotating storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail are
possible. But even here, weak low-level winds will limit the
overall severe threat.
…AR/MO…
A few thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and
evening along a cold front sagging into parts of western AR and
southeast MO. Instability will be quite weak, limiting the
organized severe risk. However, sufficient wind speeds aloft and
large-scale forcing will pose a risk of a few storms capable of
gusty/damaging winds.
…TX…
A band of strong westerly midlevel winds extends across TX today,
where a weak CAP and moderate CAPE will develop. 12z CAM solutions
generally agree that scattered thunderstorms will develop along an
axis from the Big Bend region into central and east TX this
afternoon and evening. The initial storms may be occasionally
intense with a risk of hail and gusty winds. Any severe threat
should weaken by mid-evening as diurnal cooling commences.
..Hart/Cook.. 10/15/2019
$$