Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 141200Z – 151200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.
today and tonight.

A mid-level low over northern Ontario will move northeast into
northern Quebec while an upstream disturbance over Alberta moves
quickly southeastward into the Upper Midwest. In the low levels, a
surface low initially over eastern MT will develop and deepen as it
moves eastward and reach the Twin Cities by early Tuesday morning.
Farther south, a zonal-flow regime will encompass the southern
states. A residual surface frontal zone draped over the central
Gulf Coast will move little but moistening in the low to mid levels
will aid in weak elevated buoyancy developing during the day.
Isentropic ascent and MUCAPE 250-1000 J/kg will favor isolated
showers and thunderstorms over the central Gulf Coast states to the
GA coast. A plume of mid-level moisture and associated poor lapse
rates associated convection over northwest Mexico Sunday night will
overspread the Gulf Coast and limit destabilization and storm

..Smith/Wendt.. 10/14/2019


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