Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 140100Z – 141200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

A persistent mid-level low over Ontario will slowly move east with a
belt of strong cyclonic flow wrapping around the southern semicircle
of this feature and encompassing the area from the Great Lakes into
the Northeast. Farther south, a jet streak will extend from
northern Baja CA eastward into the Carolinas. Weak ascent
associated with the left exit region of the speed max, coupled with
a frontal zone and a seasonably moist/weakly unstable airmass over
the Carolina coastal plain, will yield isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this evening. The weak CAPE profile and subdued flow
(30kt or less in the surface to 3km layer) sampled by the Morehead
City, NC raob will likely limit storm vigor this evening before the
activity pushes east of the Outer Banks later tonight.

..Smith.. 10/14/2019


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