Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 132000Z – 141200Z


Thunderstorms might produce strong to marginally severe gusts over
parts of the Carolinas later this afternoon into this evening.


No significant changes have been made to previous forecast. Weak
destabilization of the boundary layer continues this afternoon with
temperatures rising to the low 80s F supporting up to 500 J/kg
MLCAPE in warm sector over the central and eastern Carolinas. RAP
analysis and satellite imagery indicate a mid-level jet streak
spreading through the Gulf coastal states. This feature should
contribute to an increase in thunderstorm development along and
just ahead of the stationary front across the Carolinas this
afternoon, coincident with peak destabilization. While vertical wind
profiles accompanying the upper jet with 40-45 kt effective bulk
shear support the potential for a few organized storms, the very
weak thermodynamic environment will continue to be a limiting factor
for a more robust severe threat. Nevertheless, a few of the storms
might produce locally strong wind gusts through early evening.

..Dial.. 10/13/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019/

A large upper low is present today over the Great Lakes region, with
fast southwesterly flow aloft extending from the lower MS Valley
into the Mid Atlantic region. The primary surface baroclinic zone
lies from central GA into parts of SC/NC. Widespread clouds and
pockets of rain in vicinity of the boundary are limiting daytime
heating and destabilization, and should preclude a more organized
severe thunderstorm risk today. Nevertheless, forecast soundings
along the southern fringe of the cloud cover show sufficient
steering flow and CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds. The period with the greatest threat for localized
gusty/damaging winds will be from 22-03z.


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