Valid 131630Z – 141200Z
…THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING….
Thunderstorms may produce strong to marginally severe gusts over
parts of the Carolinas late this afternoon into this evening.
A large upper low is present today over the Great Lakes region, with
fast southwesterly flow aloft extending from the lower MS Valley
into the Mid Atlantic region. The primary surface baroclinic zone
lies from central GA into parts of SC/NC. Widespread clouds and
pockets of rain in vicinity of the boundary are limiting daytime
heating and destabilization, and should preclude a more organized
severe thunderstorm risk today. Nevertheless, forecast soundings
along the southern fringe of the cloud cover show sufficient
steering flow and CAPE for a few strong storms capable of gusty
winds. The period with the greatest threat for localized
gusty/damaging winds will be from 22-03z.