Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 121200Z – 131200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

An occluded deep-layer cyclone centered over northern MN at the
start of the period is expected to move slowly eastward and weaken
today. Much of the West into the south-central/southeast CONUS will
be influenced by a surface ridge, with a frontal boundary becoming
nearly stationary over the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Thunderstorm potential will generally be limited by a lack of
instability over most of the CONUS. Weak convection may persist into
the morning/early afternoon near the north-central Gulf Coast.
Sporadic bouts of convection will also be possible across the far
southern FL Peninsula into the FL Keys, though lightning potential
with this activity appears too limited to support a General
Thunderstorm delineation at this time. Later tonight, a modest
southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to develop from AL into
northern GA, supporting the potential for weak elevated convection
into Sunday morning, which may be capable of producing a few
lightning strikes.

..Dean/Wendt.. 10/12/2019


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