Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 112000Z – 121200Z


No severe storms are expected through tonight. Otherwise, isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms should continue from a portion of
Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys as well as
southern Florida this afternoon into the early evening.


Primary change from previous outlook has been to remove general
thunder from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions with less than
10% coverage expected this afternoon. Otherwise, only general
thunderstorms are expected primarily across the TN and lower MS
Valleys and southern Florida.

..Dial.. 10/11/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to affect a broad
swath from the Gulf Coast region into the Great Lakes today and
tonight. Generally poor lapse rates, weak CAPE values, and limited
vertical shear will preclude the development of organized severe

One area with a chance of more vigorous convection will be from
central MS into western/middle TN, where stronger heating and ample
low-level moisture will be present. However, weak winds aloft
should keep storms below severe limits in this region as well.


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