Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Valid 111200Z – 121200Z


Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along a cold
front moving across the middle of the country. No severe
thunderstorms are anticipated.


Intense mid-level height falls will spread across the upper MS
Valley region today ahead of a deepening low over northern MN. At
the surface, a trailing front will arc from Lake MI – western KY –
northern LA by 18z as surface pressures rise across the southern
Plains. Early this morning, a fair amount of convection is noted
along the wind shift, and within roughly 100 mi post-frontal, from
central TX into southern IL. Surface front is expected to remain
convectively active through sunrise Friday as the wind shift surges
toward the TX coast. Wedge of warm sector buoyancy will be reduced
to a narrow corridor over the lower MS Valley and this air mass will
be well removed from stronger flow aloft and large-scale forcing for
ascent. As a result, near-frontal convection should remain fairly
benign, though gusty winds could accompany a few stronger storms,
primarily during the day when instability will be greatest.

..Darrow/Wendt.. 10/11/2019


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