Valid 110100Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TX TO SOUTHWEST MO…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across portions of
north Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and southern
Missouri. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary
threats.
…01z update…
Severe probs have been adjusted south a bit across north-central TX
to account for robust convection that has developed southwest of the
Metroplex.
Surface front is surging south across the southern Plains, arcing
from south of ABI – north of FTW – southeast OK – into southwest MO.
Convection that developed along the front across OK has progressed
into AR and is less cellular in nature now that a near-continuous
squall line has evolved. 00z sounding from FWD exhibits SBCAPE on
the order of 3300 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates. Robust,
more discrete convection has recently developed from Comanche County
– Denton County. This activity should track northeast into the
Metroplex over the next few hours. Large hail as been noted with
several of these storms and this is the primary threat the remainder
of the evening. Weaker buoyancy across the lower MS Valley suggests
the squall line over AR should gradually weaken as it propagates
toward central AR.
..Darrow.. 10/11/2019
$$