Valid 101630Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI….
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
portions of north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and
far southeast Kansas into western/southern Missouri. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible.
Visible satellite imagery shows a strong cold front moving into
central OK and southeast KS. A moist and moderately unstable air
mass is present ahead of the front over north TX, eastern OK, and
western AR. Farther north, areas of clouds and precipitation are
limiting destabilization. 12z model guidance is consistent in the
development of thunderstorms along/ahead of the front from the Red
River into central MO. More isolated and less intense storms are
expected farther north into parts of IA and western/northern IL,
where very strong shear will be present, but it is not clear where
activity will be surface-based. Forecast soundings show sufficient
CAPE and vertical shear for organized storms over OK/AR with bowing
structures likely preferred. Damaging winds are the main threat,
although a few embedded supercells could result in hail or an
isolated tornado. Activity should build eastward into AR/MO through
the evening with a slow weakening trend after dark.