Valid 101300Z – 111200Z
…THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA
AND NORTH TEXAS TO MISSOURI/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS…
…SUMMARY…
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
portions of north Texas, eastern Oklahoma, northwest Arkansas and
far southeast Kansas into western/southern Missouri. Large hail,
damaging wind gusts and a couple of tornadoes are possible.
…Oklahoma/North Texas to Missouri/northwest Arkansas…
A slightly positive-tilt upper trough centered along the Rockies
Front Range this morning will continue to shift eastward, reaching
the northern/central Plains tonight. Primary related surface
cyclogenesis will occur across the middle Missouri Valley into the
Upper Midwest, with a strong cold front steadily progressing
generally southeastward across the Lower Missouri Valley/Ozarks,
Oklahoma, and much of north/central Texas through tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are common this morning across
eastern Oklahoma into Missouri in association with the pre-frontal
warm conveyor. This activity will shift eastward with a thinning of
clouds by afternoon, with a moist pre-frontal boundary layer
contributing to a corridor of moderate destabilization near/ahead of
the front as it stretches from near the Kansas/Missouri border
southwestward into central Oklahoma and western North Texas by early
afternoon.
Surface-based semi-discrete thunderstorms will initially
develop/increase by around mid-afternoon. Although overall forcing
will tend to be limited across the warm sector, relatively rich
moisture content/weak inhibition may allow for some storm
development just ahead of the cold front. Initial supercells capable
of severe hail can be expected, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out given ample low-level moisture/SRH. However, there will
otherwise be a prevalence of storm development immediately along the
surface reflection of the front, with a tendency for storm
clustering and undercutting given the strength and progressive
nature of the front. An increasing south-southwesterly low-level
jet, oriented generally parallel to the cold front, will further
lead to outflow interactions and upscale growth into clusters/line
segments by early evening. Accordingly, damaging winds will also be
a concern late this afternoon into evening, especially if
forward-propagating/bowing line segments develop as the cold front
surges east-southeast across the Ozark Plateau.
..Guyer/Dial.. 10/10/2019
$$